The former Confederate states flipped their voting record in Presidential elections.
Many people today are pushing the narrative that the two political parties are the same today as they were back in the 19th century. They say the “political switch” is a myth concocted by “those on the left.”
There’s a simple way to cut through that noise: just look at how the states of the old Confederacy have voted for president across U.S. history.
The Confederate South
Some facts about the two major political parties and elections.
The first 7 Confederate states were these in the Deep South:
South Carolina, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas.
Then four Upper South states joined:
Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Missouri and Kentucky were accepted by the Confederacy but never fully controlled by it.
Now, let’s look at the voting records of these states.
Pre–Civil War and Reconstruction:
1856 — Democrat James Buchanan wins every Southern state.
1860 — The Southern Democrat wins 9 Confederate states. Republican Abraham Lincoln wins zero slave states.
1868 — First post-war election. Republican Ulysses S. Grant wins 7 of the former Confederate states (including Kentucky and Missouri); Democrats win 3 — thanks in part to the new Black vote during Reconstruction.
1872 — Grant (Republican) vs. Greeley (Liberal Republican).
1876 — Democrats win 10, Republicans win only 3 slave states. This disputed election ends Reconstruction and is marred by widespread Black disenfranchisement.
The “Solid South” Era:
1880 – Democrat wins them all
1884 – Democrat wins them all
1888 – Democrat wins them all
1892 – Democrat wins them all
1896 – Democrat wins them all, except most of Kentucky
1900 – Democrat wins them all
1904 – Democrat wins them all, except missouri
1908 – Democrat wins them all, except missouri
1912 – Democrat wins them all
1916 – Democrat wins them all
1920 – Democrat wins them all, except Tennessee & Missouri
1924 – Democrat wins them all except, Missouri & Kentucky
1928 – Democrat wins 6 of them Republican wins 7
1932 – Democrat wins all of them
1936 – Democrat wins all of them
1940 – Democrat wins all of them
1944 – Democrat wins all of them
1948 – Democrat wins 8 and split 1 with the Dixiecrat who won another 4
1952 – Democrat wins 8, Republican won 4
1956 – Democrat wins 7 (1 elector in Alabama voted other), Republican won 6
1960 – Democrat wins 9, with 2 states splitting between Dems, Republican won 4
1964 – Democrat wins 8, Republican won 5
the 5 states were Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana. Since 1872 those states had voted Democratic every election year except Louisiana in 1956
1968 – Democrat wins 1, Independent won 5 and split 1, Republican won 6 and split 1
1972 – Republican wins all
1976 – Democrat wins all, except Virginia
1980 – Republican wins all of them except Georgia
1984 – Republican wins all of them
1988 – Republican wins all of them
1992 – Republican wins 7, Democrat won 6
1996 – Republican wins 7, Democrat won 6
2000 – Republican wins all of them
2004 – Republican wins all of them
2008 – Republican wins all except Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia
2012 – Republican wins all except Virginia and Florida.
2016 – Republican wins all except Virginia
2020 – Republican wins all except Virginia and Georgia
2024 – Republican wins all except Virginia
What This Shows
This patterns are unmistakable. From the time from 1876 through 1964 the Democrats had a solid hold on the states that were the former Confederacy. Intermittently losing 1 or 2 of the border confederacy states. After 1964, the Democrat hold on the southern states was gone. Since that time, only in 1976 did a Democrat win such a large margin of the southern states and it is useful to know that the Democratic candidate that year was himself from Georgia.
As this chat shows, for nearly a century after the Civil War, the former Confederate states voted solidly Democratic. Today, they vote overwhelmingly Republican. By definition that can be labeled a “change” or a “flip.”
If the parties had never changed, this reversal wouldn’t exist.
Let’s look at the possibilities that can explain this change.
- Most voters in the South changed their own views ( such as not wanting segregation any longer, not wanting Jim Crow laws anymore, embracing desegregation, etc) and decided their views now matched the unchanging Republican Party.
- Most voters in the south still had their same views and decided the Republican party had changed and now better matched those views.
- The voters themselves moved. Most people who had voted for Democrats all these years moved out of the south and people that voted Republican all these years moved in to take their place. Now, there was The Great Migration that took place between 1910-1970, but this is the opposite migration one would expect based on the voting patterns. Approximately 6 million African Americans (who at the time overwhelmingly voted Republican) moved out of the south into the northeast, west and midwest. This migration actually helps to explain the solid south voting for Democrats during this time because those in the south that would vote for Republicans were leaving the region, thus ensuring a greater margin for Democratic candidates.
Of these 3 options, there is a modern narrative trying to get people to actually believe that #1 is the best explanation.
As ridiculous as that premise is, it still is trying to explain a switch. In fact, something not only switched, but completely flipped. We don’t see mixed voting results in the south now. We still see a predictable, strong, voting block. Like it has been for around 150 years. The main change is which political party that voting block supports.
And one more thing: if someone insists “Democrats are still the racist party,” but has to point to Democrats from over a century ago to prove it, they’ve actually conceded the point.
If the parties hadn’t changed, they could just point to modern Democrats.